Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bastia win with a probability of 42.68%. A draw had a probability of 29.9% and a win for Niort had a probability of 27.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bastia win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.85%) and 1-2 (7.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.24%), while for a Niort win it was 1-0 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bastia would win this match.