Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mazatlan win with a probability of 40.01%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 33.96% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mazatlan win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.6%) and 2-0 (6.82%). The likeliest Toluca win was 0-1 (8.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.
