SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 22 | 80 |
| 4 | Northampton Town | 46 | 22 | 80 |
| 5 | Port Vale | 46 | 21 | 78 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Swindon Town | 46 | 23 | 77 |
| 7 | Mansfield Town | 46 | 15 | 77 |
| 8 | Sutton United | 46 | 16 | 76 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mansfield Town win with a probability of 36.08%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 35.89% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mansfield Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.74%) and 0-2 (6.61%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 1-0 (11.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Mansfield Town in this match.
| Result | ||
| Northampton Town | Draw | Mansfield Town |
35.89% ( 0.01) | 28.04% ( -0.34) | 36.08% ( 0.34) |
| Both teams to score 47.7% ( 1.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.62% ( 1.25) | 58.38% ( -1.24) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.02% ( 0.97) | 78.99% ( -0.96) |
| Northampton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69% ( 0.64) | 31% ( -0.63) |
