Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 36.89%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 36.01% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (6.53%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 0-1 (10.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Exeter City would win this match.