Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 45.72%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 28.97% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.22%) and 2-0 (7.89%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (7.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.