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May 11, 2022 at 8pm UK at Stadio Olimpico
Inter Milan
2 - 4
Sandro (50'), Vlahovic (52')
Allegri (83'), Locatelli (90+2')
Allegri (104')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Barella (7'), Calhanoglu (80' pen.), Perisic (98' pen., 102')
Brozovic (55'), Vidal (119')

Preview: Inter Milan vs. Juventus - prediction, team news, lineups

:Headline: Preview: Inter Milan vs. Juventus - prediction, team news, lineups:
Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Coppa Italia clash between Inter Milan and Juventus, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Sports Mole

For the fourth time this season, two titans of Calcio convene, as Inter Milan meet holders Juventus in Wednesday's Coppa Italia final at Stadio Olimpico.

Reprising a decades-old rivalry, the Nerazzurri and Bianconeri will have the eyes of the world on their latest Derby d'Italia, which is only the third ever final between Serie A's two most successful sides.

While Juve won both previous deciders, the most recent was in 1965, and they have recently been on the wrong end of the result against Inter more often than not.

Match preview

Some 12 months ago, Federico Chiesa played an instrumental role in the victory over Atalanta that helped Juventus to a record-extending 14th Coppa Italia title; providing some consolation for being usurped by Inter as league champions after nearly a decade of dominance.

Chiesa then went on to taste continental glory with Italy at Euro 2020 a few weeks later, but the winger has since been sidelined by injury as both club and country have faltered; once again, Juve are set to watch on as the Scudetto is lifted later this month.

Sitting fourth in the Serie A standings, Max Allegri's men have stumbled several times this term, and though their first clash with Inter saw the points shared in October's 1-1 draw - Paulo Dybala scoring a late equaliser from the spot - their Nerazzurro rivals enjoyed sweet revenge at the start of this year.

On that occasion, the Supercoppa Italiana went the way of Inter, as Alexis Sanchez snatched a stoppage-time winner to deny the Bianconeri an opportunity to try their luck in a penalty shootout.

Allegri has since imposed some authority on an ailing side, which helped them grind their way to 16 domestic games without defeat, but they were once again beaten when Inter travelled to Turin just last month. That reverse forms part of a wider picture, in which Juventus have registered only four draws and two defeats from their Serie A meetings with the other top-four clubs this term.

Having also exited the Champions League to giant-killers Villarreal, Juve are staring at a season without silverware for the first time in a decade if they cannot claim the Coppa on Wednesday, but history suggests that even some patchy form - including Friday's defeat at lowly Genoa - will not deter them.

After lifting the trophy in four consecutive seasons from 2015-18, the defending champions are specialists in this competition, and following wins over Sampdoria, Sassuolo and Fiorentina in the previous rounds, the Old Lady will grace the final once more.

Though their pursuit of a second successive Scudetto seems set to end in failure, Inter have already lifted one trophy this season, and they will be keen to now add to their Supercoppa success by dashing the hopes of their old foes from Turin.

Indeed, before the Nerazzurri's title win last year, they had failed to secure a single significant trophy since the Club World Cup back in 2011, which followed hot on the heels of their treble triumph under Jose Mourinho.

As victory in Rome would bring their tally to three in two seasons, current coach Simone Inzaghi will be desperate to prove his credentials in that regard, particularly given his side's slip-ups in the title race.

Inter had put together an eight-game winning streak before lifting the Supercoppa in early January, at a time when they enjoyed an 11-point lead over Juventus and topped the table ahead of Milan, who they more recently eliminated in the Coppa Italia semi-finals.

Since then, though, they have stumbled towards the finish line and trail their Rossonero rivals by two points in the table, with just two games left to go.

Nevertheless, Inzaghi has been relieved to see his side regain their touch in the final third of late, and having scored in each of their last 10 games - including four goals in their defeat of Empoli on Friday - they arrive in the Eternal City with a certain sense of expectation.

Having gone unbeaten against Juve in both league fixtures for the first time since the 2008-09 campaign, after Hakan Calhanoglu's re-taken penalty separated the sides last month, the fear factor has undoubtedly subsided, and a first Coppa win for 11 years could be just 90 minutes away.

Inter Milan Coppa Italia form:
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W

Inter Milan form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W

Juventus Coppa Italia form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Juventus form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L

Team News

Since Juventus announced that Paulo Dybala would not extend his contract at the club, the long-serving forward has been linked with a move to Inter, against whom he has scored only four goals in 16 appearances - though his most recent secured a draw at San Siro this season.

After netting his 115th Juve goal in the humbling defeat to Genoa - a match which he started alongside Dusan Vlahovic, the Argentina international will be favourite to keep his place, which could see Alvaro Morata forced to settle for a place on the bench.

Meanwhile, in midfield, Manuel Locatelli is back in contention after missing the Bianconeri's last five league outings, but Max Allegri is unlikely to risk him from the start, so Denis Zakaria and Adrien Rabiot are expected to feature in the engine room. American midfielder Weston McKennie will not recover from injury in time to make the final but should be back before the end of the season.

With Leonardo Bonucci potentially being squeezed out, Matthijs de Ligt and Giorgio Chiellini are set to start in central defence, and the latter is aiming to lift his 20th trophy for the club on Wednesday.

On the left of a probable back four - though Allegri likes to keep opponents guessing - Luca Pellegrini is back to battle Alex Sandro for a place after overcoming an ankle sprain, with fellow full-back Mattia De Sciglio suspended.

By contrast, Inter travel to the capital with few fitness concerns, as even Alessandro Bastoni could contend for a spot at centre-back, having returned to training this week following a calf problem which has ruled him out for several weeks.

Should the Italy international be unable to line up in Simone Inzaghi's back three, his place on the left would again be filled by Federico Dimarco, though Danilo D'Ambrosio is another available option.

Inzaghi is not expected to make many changes to the starting XI that won at Empoli, but experienced strikers Edin Dzeko and Alexis Sanchez will hope to unseat current incumbent Joaquin Correa alongside in-form Lautaro Martinez up front.

Inter Milan possible starting lineup:
Handanovic; Skriniar, De Vrij, D'Ambrosio; Dumfries, Barella, Brozovic, Calhanoglu, Perisic; Martinez, Dzeko

Juventus possible starting lineup:
Perin; Danilo, De Ligt, Chiellini, Sandro; Zakaria, Rabiot; Cuadrado, Dybala, Bernardeschi; Vlahovic

We say: Inter Milan 1-2 Juventus (after extra time)

Although there will be plenty of attacking talent on display at the Olimpico, both coaches can be risk-averse on the big occasion, so this should be a final decided by a one-goal margin.

In fact, the evening could well end in penalties, but reigning Coppa champions Juve may have a late surprise in their armoury; taking vengeance for recent defeats to Inter with victory after 120 minutes of intense combat.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Juventus win with a probability of 39.92%. A win for Inter Milan has a probability of 33.53% and a draw has a probability of 26.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Juventus win is 0-1 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.51%) and 0-2 (7.02%). The likeliest Inter Milan win is 1-0 (9.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.62%).

Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data

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