Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 49.65%. A win for Red Bull Salzburg had a probability of 27.67% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.66%) and 0-2 (7.09%). The likeliest Red Bull Salzburg win was 2-1 (6.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.