We said: Napoli 2-2 Leicester City
While Napoli's need is greater, that may play into the hands of Leicester, who can afford to strike on the counter using their abundant guile and pace.
The sheer volume of key men missing for the Partenopei may not be surmountable, and taking just a point from a potentially wide-open encounter would see them slide into the Conference League knockout round for finishing third.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 42.9%. A win for Leicester City had a probability of 33.09% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.88%) and 2-0 (6.4%). The likeliest Leicester City win was 1-2 (7.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.
