Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 72.46%. A draw had a probability of 16.1% and a win for Emmen had a probability of 11.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.35%) and 3-0 (8.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.42%), while for a Emmen win it was 1-2 (3.36%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.