Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brescia win with a probability of 38.35%. A win for Pisa had a probability of 34.5% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brescia win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.22%) and 0-2 (6.87%). The likeliest Pisa win was 1-0 (10.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brescia would win this match.