Birmingham head into this contest under far less pressure than their hosts, and that could show in their performance. Nevertheless, we feel that the home side should have enough quality to edge this contest by the odd goal in three, potentially with a goal during the closing stages.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 58.95%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Birmingham City had a probability of 17.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.68%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.08%), while for a Birmingham City win it was 0-1 (6.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.
