Given the inconsistency of the teams above them, both sides know the importance of collecting three points on Saturday. Nevertheless, with neither of these clubs particularly free-scoring, an uneventful draw appears to be the most likely outcome.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 40.28%. A win for Swansea City had a probability of 32.35% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.39%) and 2-0 (7.41%). The likeliest Swansea City win was 0-1 (9.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Middlesbrough in this match.
