Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 40.39%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 30.4% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8%) and 1-2 (7.88%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 1-0 (11.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.