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We said: Bayern Munich 3-1 Barcelona

Barcelona have far more riding on this game than Bayern do, but it is difficult to see a Blaugrana team low on confidence and numbers springing any surprises at the Allianz Arena. Some expected changes in the home defence will aid Barca's prospects of making the net ripple, but Nagelsmann's side could very well condemn the Catalans to the unfamiliar territory of Europa League football this week. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 54.06%. A win for Barcelona had a probability of 24.14% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.79%) and 2-0 (7.69%). The likeliest Barcelona win was 1-2 (6.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
Bayern MunichDrawBarcelona
54.06%21.8%24.14%
Both teams to score 61.64%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.69%37.32%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.47%59.53%
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.12%13.88%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.71%41.29%
Barcelona Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.57%28.43%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.82%64.19%
Score Analysis
    Bayern Munich 54.06%
    Barcelona 24.14%
    Draw 21.8%
Bayern MunichDrawBarcelona
2-1 @ 9.68%
1-0 @ 7.79%
2-0 @ 7.69%
3-1 @ 6.37%
3-0 @ 5.06%
3-2 @ 4.01%
4-1 @ 3.15%
4-0 @ 2.5%
4-2 @ 1.98%
5-1 @ 1.24%
5-0 @ 0.99%
Other @ 3.61%
Total : 54.06%
1-1 @ 9.8%
2-2 @ 6.09%
0-0 @ 3.95%
3-3 @ 1.68%
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 21.8%
1-2 @ 6.16%
0-1 @ 4.96%
0-2 @ 3.12%
1-3 @ 2.58%
2-3 @ 2.55%
0-3 @ 1.31%
Other @ 3.45%
Total : 24.14%

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3Tottenham HotspurSpurs127232314923
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6Manchester UnitedMan Utd116231616020
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Major League Soccer Table

Eastern Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia341910572264667
2CF MontrealMontreal34205963501365
3New York City FCNY City341671157411655
4New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls34158115041953
5FC CincinnatiCincinnati34121396456849
6Inter MiamiInter Miami34146144756-948
7Orlando City34146144453-948
8Columbus Crew34101684641546
9New England RevolutionNew England341012124750-342
10Charlotte FCCharlotte FC34133184452-842
11Atlanta UnitedAtlanta341010144854-640
12Chicago Fire34109153948-939
13Toronto3497184966-1734
14DC United3476213671-3527

Western Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia341910572264667
2CF MontrealMontreal34205963501365
3New York City FCNY City341671157411655
4New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls34158115041953
5FC CincinnatiCincinnati34121396456849
6Inter MiamiInter Miami34146144756-948
7Orlando City34146144453-948
8Columbus Crew34101684641546
9New England RevolutionNew England341012124750-342
10Charlotte FCCharlotte FC34133184452-842
11Atlanta UnitedAtlanta341010144854-640
12Chicago Fire34109153948-939
13Toronto3497184966-1734
14DC United3476213671-3527
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