Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 47.37%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 33.54% and a draw had a probability of 19.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 6.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-2 (5.72%) and 3-1 (5.53%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 (5.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 2-2 (7%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.