The two teams played out a draw in the reverse match earlier this season, and we can see another stalemate here. It is always difficult to predict games straight after an international break, and we have had to sit on the fence somewhat, backing a low-scoring draw.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Koln win with a probability of 39.49%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 35.23% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Koln win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.61%) and 0-2 (6.38%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 1-0 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.
