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Aug 6, 2022 at 2.30pm UK at Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Union Berlin
3 - 1
Hertha Berlin
Siebatcheu (32'), Becker (50'), Knoche (54')
Knoche (35'), Leweling (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Lukebakio (85')
Uremovic (52'), Sunjic (77'), Lukebakio (87')

We said: Union Berlin 2-1 Hertha Berlin

Hertha could hardly have asked for a tougher test in Schwarz's first Bundesliga game in charge, and we expect the more settled hosts to secure a derby victory. The visitors looked wide open against a team one division below them in their cup defeat last weekend, with Union Berlin perfectly poised to hurt them in transition. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 49.16%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Hertha Berlin had a probability of 24.35%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.64%) and 2-1 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.44%), while for a Hertha Berlin win it was 0-1 (8.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.

Result
Union BerlinDrawHertha Berlin
49.16% (-0.101 -0.1) 26.48% (0.022000000000002 0.02) 24.35% (0.076000000000001 0.08)
Both teams to score 46.9% (0.009999999999998 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.15% (-0.025999999999996 -0.03)56.85% (0.022999999999996 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.22% (-0.021999999999998 -0.02)77.78% (0.019000000000005 0.02)
Union Berlin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.8% (-0.055999999999997 -0.06)23.19% (0.054000000000002 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.91% (-0.082999999999998 -0.08)57.09% (0.079999999999998 0.08)
Hertha Berlin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.06% (0.055999999999997 0.06)38.93% (-0.059000000000005 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.34% (0.052999999999997 0.05)75.66% (-0.055999999999997 -0.06)
Score Analysis
    Union Berlin 49.16%
    Hertha Berlin 24.35%
    Draw 26.48%
Union BerlinDrawHertha Berlin
1-0 @ 13.19% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-0 @ 9.64% (-0.023 -0.02)
2-1 @ 9.1% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-0 @ 4.7% (-0.019 -0.02)
3-1 @ 4.43% (-0.011 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.09% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-0 @ 1.72% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.62% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 2.68%
Total : 49.16%
1-1 @ 12.44% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 9.03% (0.0080000000000009 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.29% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.72%
Total : 26.48%
0-1 @ 8.52% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
1-2 @ 5.87% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
0-2 @ 4.02% (0.016 0.02)
1-3 @ 1.85% (0.008 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.35% (0.004 0)
0-3 @ 1.26% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 1.49%
Total : 24.35%

Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Chemnitzer 1-2 Union Berlin
Monday, August 1 at 5.01pm in DFB-Pokal
Last Game: Union Berlin 1-0 Nott'm Forest
Saturday, July 23 at 4pm in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: Union Berlin 3-2 VfL Bochum
Saturday, May 14 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Freiburg 1-4 Union Berlin
Saturday, May 7 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Union Berlin 1-1 Greuther Furth
Friday, April 29 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: RB Leipzig 1-2 Union Berlin
Saturday, April 23 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Braunschweig 4-4 Hertha Berlin (6-5 pen.)
Sunday, July 31 at 5.01pm in DFB-Pokal
Last Game: West Brom 2-1 Hertha Berlin
Saturday, July 23 at 3pm in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: Nott'm Forest 3-1 Hertha Berlin
Wednesday, July 20 at 7pm in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: Derby 1-0 Hertha Berlin
Saturday, July 16 at 4pm in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: Hamburger SV 0-2 Hertha Berlin
Monday, May 23 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga Relegation Playoffs
Last Game: Hertha Berlin 0-1 Hamburger SV
Thursday, May 19 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga Relegation Playoffs
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