We said: Union Berlin 2-1 Hertha Berlin
Hertha could hardly have asked for a tougher test in Schwarz's first Bundesliga game in charge, and we expect the more settled hosts to secure a derby victory.
The visitors looked wide open against a team one division below them in their cup defeat last weekend, with Union Berlin perfectly poised to hurt them in transition.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 49.16%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Hertha Berlin had a probability of 24.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.64%) and 2-1 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.44%), while for a Hertha Berlin win it was 0-1 (8.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.