Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 46.32%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Augsburg had a probability of 26.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (8.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.67%), while for an Augsburg win it was 0-1 (9%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.
