SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Ceara | 18 | 2 | 24 |
| 11 | Santos | 17 | 4 | 22 |
| 12 | Goias | 17 | -3 | 21 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Goias | 17 | -3 | 21 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 17 | -5 | 21 |
| 14 | Avai | 18 | -9 | 21 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 54.94%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Botafogo had a probability of 19.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.12%) and 2-1 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.78%), while for a Botafogo win it was 0-1 (7.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Santos would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Santos | Draw | Botafogo |
54.94% ( -0.26) | 25.21% ( 0.1) | 19.85% ( 0.16) |
| Both teams to score 45.11% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.58% ( -0.18) | 56.42% ( 0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.57% ( -0.14) | 77.43% ( 0.14) |
| Santos Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.45% ( -0.18) | 20.54% ( 0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 46.94% ( -0.28) | 53.06% ( 0.28) |
| Botafogo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.77% ( 0.08) | 43.23% ( -0.08) |
