SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | Athletico Paranaense | 14 | 2 | 24 |
| 6 | Fluminense | 14 | 2 | 21 |
| 7 | Santos | 14 | 5 | 19 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 14 | 17 | 29 |
| 2 | Corinthians | 14 | 7 | 26 |
| 3 | Internacional | 14 | 7 | 24 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 49.22%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Corinthians had a probability of 23.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.91%) and 2-1 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.54%), while for a Corinthians win it was 0-1 (8.8%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fluminense would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fluminense | Draw | Corinthians |
49.22% ( 0.38) | 26.96% ( -0.02) | 23.81% ( -0.37) |
| Both teams to score 45.11% ( -0.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.09% ( -0.2) | 58.91% ( 0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.6% ( -0.15) | 79.4% ( 0.15) |
| Fluminense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.94% ( 0.09) | 24.06% ( -0.1) |
