In sports betting, there are many, many factors that can influence the final outcome. This is why it is such an engrossing pastime - the uncertainty has an addictive thrill to it. But when you are in the business of taking bets, you cannot afford to go in blind.
Bookies have over time developed a reputation for being very astute about the chances of winners and losers in a contest. They may have lost big time in 2016 when the Premier League was won by Leicester, but those are once-in-a-generation events.
On the more mundane topic of managerial appointments, the odds-on favourite often ends up getting the job. Now, the hiring and firing of managers at football clubs are like an annual tradition in the modern game.
There are at least half a dozen sackings, if not more, at each league these days. You can win a lot at many online sportsbooks around the world if you focus just on managers alone. But there are safer options with UK licences for betting than sports, and you should focus on these first.
Figures like Ferguson and Wenger seem destined to become relics of the past - no longer can a manager hope to carry on at a club for decades. Take the current fate of the clubs managed by these two legends for example - Manchester United and Arsenal.
It is "new manager time" at Arsenal (again)
Manchester United after Ferguson is starting to look like a fever dream, with a never-ending procession of big-name managers (and David Moyes) failing to live up to expectations. Arsenal seemed intent on avoiding the same fate when Wenger hung up his manager suit in 2018.
The appointment of the highly-regarded Unai Emery seemed like a smart move back then, with suggestions of a long-term plan in place. Fast forward one-and-a-half seasons and everything look to be in tatters. The club are flailing mid-table, Emery seemed to have lost the dressing room, and drastic action was necessary.
December 2019 began with heightened buzz about who the new manager at the Emirates was going to be. There were several big names in the list, including ex-Arsenal legends. But in the end, there were no shock moves as Arsenal went for the promising but untested Mikel Arteta.
Before we look at the factors that made Arteta a favourite for the boffins at Emirates, lets quickly go through the list of also-rans in this race.
The other members of the Arsenal "old boys club"
Two of the big names in contention were ex-Arsenal players with a stature much bigger than Mikel Arteta. The biggest of these was, of course, the legendary captain Patrick Vieira, who led the team in their glory years in the early 2000s.
Since retiring in 2011, Vieira started his coaching career at newly expanded Manchester City youth development complex. He went on to become the reserve team and development squad manager at City, before leaving to take up reins at sister club New York City FC in the MLS.
Vieira had a decent if a rather unremarkable stint at New York and his next destination, OGC Nice, where he remains the club manager. Nevertheless, due to his deep ties with Arsenal, Vieira had the decent odds to get the job, at 16/1.
Freddie Ljungberg had strong odds of 12/1, as he was Arsenal old boy and already a part of the coaching setup at the club under Emery. Though he was given a caretaker role, a run of just one win in five games worked against him and cost him the job. But it is highly likely that the 42-year old will continue working in the dugout under Arteta as a coach.
Will he have success as a manager as he did as a player?
The Italians who were in the mix
There were a couple of elite Italian managers whose names were also doing the rounds prior to the Arteta announcement. Of these, Carlo Ancelotti was the clear favourite at 5/1, which is quite understandable as he was available thanks to a very recent sacking at Napoli.
Ancelotti is coming back to the Premier League, but not in the red and white colours of the Gunners. It will be in the blue livery of Everton, the other Liverpool club which has been struggling with relegation-quality form in recent months.
Massimiliano Allegri was the other option, and he also happens to be without a club at the moment. A proven coach with many titles on his resume, the former Juventus coach has many admirers. But his odds were quite low at 25/1 for the Arsenal job since he did not seem too keen on a move to a struggling club in midseason.
Current Premier League managers were also considered
Given Arsenal's status as one of the big four (or big six) in England, managers at many of the smaller clubs were also in the running. Eddie Howe, one of the most popular young English managers right now, was a contender at 20/1.
Currently managing the struggling Bournemouth, Howe had built up an excellent reputation with his exploits with the Cherries in the top flight in the last couple of seasons. Another overseas manager who built a great reputation with a smaller club in recent years is Nuno Espirito Santo.
The Wolves manager was in the bookies' list at 25/1 and he would have been mad to leave with his club flying at sixth position in the table right now. And that leaves us with the man who did get the job in the end - Mikel Arteta.
Why bookies were so bullish about Arteta's chances
For starters, the former Arsenal captain has been working under Guardiola for several years now. Others in a similar position in the past have gone on to be great coaches, with Tito Vilanova, Erik Ten Hag and Domenec Torrent.
And this is not the first time Arteta has been associated with the Arsenal job. His path last year was blocked by the fame and experience of Emery. Since that has yielded failure, it was only fair to give Arteta a chance.
Besides, at 37 years of age and the experience of multiple league titles under his belt, the ex-Arsenal captain is probably at the right stage to take his management career to the next level. And given his recent ties with Arsenal (he was playing for them as recently as 2016), it seemed like a natural fit for a club seeking a long-term rebuild.
In the end, it was all these reasons and more that led to Arteta getting the job. But it remains to be seen if this will pan out well in the end. Only time will answer that question. body check tags ::
