SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 20 | Independiente | 13 | -4 | 13 |
| 21 | Velez Sarsfield | 12 | -2 | 12 |
| 22 | Central Cordoba | 12 | -8 | 11 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Estudiantes | 13 | 15 | 28 |
| 3 | River Plate | 13 | 18 | 26 |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 13 | 6 | 24 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 41.76%. A win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 30.88% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.52%) and 0-2 (7.79%). The likeliest Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 (9.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Velez Sarsfield | Draw | River Plate |
30.88% ( -1.5) | 27.36% ( 0.21) | 41.76% ( 1.29) |
| Both teams to score 48.71% ( -1.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.34% ( -1.22) | 56.65% ( 1.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.38% ( -0.99) | 77.62% ( 0.99) |
| Velez Sarsfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.49% ( -1.69) | 33.51% ( 1.69) |
