Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zambia win with a probability of 48.77%. A win for Equatorial Guinea had a probability of 27.97% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zambia win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.26%) and 2-0 (7.33%). The likeliest Equatorial Guinea win was 1-2 (6.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.
