Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovenia win with a probability of 43.57%. A win for Russia had a probability of 30.24% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Slovenia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Russia win was 0-1 (8.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
