Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rwanda win with a probability of 41.62%. A win for Uganda had a probability of 29.71% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rwanda win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.2%) and 2-1 (8.14%). The likeliest Uganda win was 0-1 (10.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.
