Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Panama win with a probability of 42.21%. A win for Jamaica had a probability of 31.62% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Panama win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (7.41%). The likeliest Jamaica win was 0-1 (8.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Panama would win this match.
