Lebanon are well-structured and capable of holding teams for long periods of time, but we do not believe that they are able to possess the ball enough to create a sufficient amount of scoring opportunities and earn three points.
Iraq may be a better side than their record currently indicates, however, a lack of quality and experience in the attack has plagued them in this current campaign, and we expect that trend to continue in this match.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iraq win with a probability of 37.05%. A win for Lebanon had a probability of 35.68% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iraq win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.04%) and 0-2 (6.62%). The likeliest Lebanon win was 1-0 (10.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
