We said: Japan 1-0 Saudi Arabia
These are two evenly matched teams, who could both be qualified for the World Cup at the end of this round, but we are giving the Samurai Warriors a slight edge, primarily because they have been a little better when it comes to limiting the amount of quality scoring opportunities of their opponents.
In their 10 visits to the Land of the Rising Sun, the Saudis have lost nine times to the Japanese and given how close the standings are, expect to see a little more urgency from the Samurai Blue, who do not have the luxury of holding a slight cushion in the table, like The Arabian Falcons.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 54.57%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Saudi Arabia had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.81%) and 2-0 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.05%), while for a Saudi Arabia win it was 0-1 (6.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Japan would win this match.
