Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 55.68%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for North Macedonia had a probability of 17.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.36%) and 2-1 (8.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.74%), while for a North Macedonia win it was 0-1 (8.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.
