Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 54.75%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Slovakia had a probability of 19.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.63%) and 2-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.91%), while for a Slovakia win it was 0-1 (7.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.
