Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The New Saints win with a probability of 69.4%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Pen-y-Bont had a probability of 12.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a The New Saints win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.04%) and 1-2 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.53%), while for a Pen-y-Bont win it was 1-0 (3.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that The New Saints would win this match.
