Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 42.22%. A win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 31.13% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (7.63%). The likeliest Cerro Largo win was 0-1 (9.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.
