SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Fenix | 18 | -2 | 25 |
| 10 | River Plate | 17 | 5 | 24 |
| 11 | Montevideo City Torque | 17 | -1 | 19 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Liverpool | 17 | 12 | 33 |
| 3 | Boston River | 17 | 6 | 31 |
| 4 | Penarol | 17 | 5 | 29 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 41.1%. A win for Boston River had a probability of 30.05% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.1%) and 2-1 (8.05%). The likeliest Boston River win was 0-1 (10.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| River Plate | Draw | Boston River |
41.1% ( -0.05) | 28.84% ( 0.22) | 30.05% ( -0.17) |
| Both teams to score 44.26% ( -0.65) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.92% ( -0.78) | 62.08% ( 0.78) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.2% ( -0.58) | 81.79% ( 0.57) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.29% ( -0.41) | 29.71% ( 0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 34.23% ( -0.51) | 65.77% ( 0.5) |
| Boston River Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.97% ( -0.56) | 37.03% ( 0.55) |
