Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 53.66%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Boston River had a probability of 19.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.74%) and 2-1 (8.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.06%), while for a Boston River win it was 0-1 (8.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 16.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Penarol in this match.
-0.14) 
0.21) 
