Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 52.54%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 22.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.18%) and 2-1 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.96%), while for a Plaza Colonia win it was 0-1 (7.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Nacional in this match.
