Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 37.17%. A win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 35.07% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.95%) and 0-2 (6.79%). The likeliest Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-0 (10.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerro Largo would win this match.
