Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 40.01%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 33.35% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.51%) and 0-2 (7.08%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 (9.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.
