SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Penarol | 20 | 4 | 31 |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 19 | 0 | 29 |
| 8 | Fenix | 20 | -1 | 29 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | River Plate | 20 | 6 | 28 |
| 10 | Danubio | 19 | -1 | 25 |
| 11 | Albion | 20 | -13 | 21 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 43.35%. A draw had a probability of 28.4% and a win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.63%) and 1-2 (8.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.11%), while for a Defensor Sporting win it was 1-0 (10.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Danubio |
28.2% ( -0.05) | 28.45% ( -0.01) | 43.35% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 44.45% ( 0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.58% ( 0.02) | 61.42% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.69% ( 0.01) | 81.31% ( -0.01) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.85% ( -0.03) | 38.15% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.09% ( -0.03) | 74.91% ( 0.03) |
| Danubio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.86% ( 0.04) | 28.14% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.18% ( 0.05) | 63.82% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Danubio |
| 1-0 @ 10.34% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 6.32% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 4.99% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 2.03% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.6% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.29% ( -0)Other @ 1.63% Total : 28.19% | 1-1 @ 13.11% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 10.73% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 4.01% Other @ 0.59% Total : 28.44% | 0-1 @ 13.61% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 8.63% ( 0.01)1-2 @ 8.32% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 3.65% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.52% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.69% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.16% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.11% ( 0)Other @ 1.67% Total : 43.35% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PenarolPenarol | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 34 |
| 2 | NacionalNacional | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 26 |
| 3 | Defensor SportingDefensor | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 25 |
| 4 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 25 |
| 5 | Montevideo WanderersWanderers | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
| 6 | LiverpoolLiverpool | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 20 |
| 7 | River PlateRiver Plate | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 20 |
| 8 | Deportivo MaldonadoMaldonado | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 20 |
| 9 | La Luz | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 18 |
| 10 | Montevideo City TorqueTorque | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 16 |
| 11 | DanubioDanubio | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 15 |
| 12 | Racing de MontevideoRacing | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 15 |
| 13 | Plaza ColoniaPlaza Colonia | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 15 |
| 14 | Boston RiverBoston River | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 14 |
| 15 | CerroCerro | 14 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 13 |
| 16 | FenixFenix | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 12 |
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