Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 46.71%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 26.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.18%) and 1-2 (8.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.73%), while for a Cerro Largo win it was 1-0 (9.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.
-0.02) 
0.03) 
