Atletico Madrid 1-2 Athletic Bilbao - Supercopa de Espana Semi-Finals - Football

A closely-fought contest between two evenly-matched sides, who could not be separated earlier this campaign, is set to be played out on Thursday with the tie potentially going beyond the 90 minutes. The two teams will almost be at full strength in Saudi Arabia; however, the return of Suarez and Gimenez for Atletico Madrid may give them the slight edge to advance to the final. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 50.85%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 21.16%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11%) and 2-1 (8.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.43%), while for an Athletic Bilbao win it was 0-1 (9.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.

Result
Atletico Madrid	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
50.85%	27.99%	21.16%

Both teams to score 39.87%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

35.81%

64.19%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

16.68%

83.32%

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.34%

25.66%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.43%

60.57%

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

53.63%

46.37%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18%

82%

Score Analysis

Atletico Madrid 50.84%

Athletic Bilbao 21.16%

Draw 27.99%

Atletico Madrid	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
1-0 @ 16.18% 2-0 @ 11% 2-1 @ 8.46% 3-0 @ 4.99% 3-1 @ 3.84% 4-0 @ 1.7% 3-2 @ 1.47% 4-1 @ 1.3% Other @ 1.9% Total : 50.84%	1-1 @ 12.43% 0-0 @ 11.9% 2-2 @ 3.25% Other @ 0.4% Total : 27.99%	0-1 @ 9.15% 1-2 @ 4.78% 0-2 @ 3.52% 1-3 @ 1.23% Other @ 2.49% Total : 21.16%