Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Istanbul Basaksehir win with a probability of 61.09%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Kasimpasa had a probability of 16.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Istanbul Basaksehir win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.02%) and 2-1 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.7%), while for a Kasimpasa win it was 0-1 (5.95%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Istanbul Basaksehir would win this match.
0.33) 
-0.13) 
