Spezia have picked up 22 of their 29 league points against teams in the bottom half of the table, and that share (76%) represents the highest throughout Serie A this season.
Also considering Venezia's travails in front of goal - they have not scored in over 200 minutes - the home side should be favoured to edge this one at the Picco.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 46.05%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Venezia had a probability of 26.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.11%) and 2-1 (8.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.83%), while for a Venezia win it was 0-1 (9.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Spezia in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Spezia.
