SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 15 | Sampdoria | 38 | -17 | 36 |
| 16 | Spezia | 38 | -30 | 36 |
| 17 | Salernitana | 38 | -45 | 31 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Inter Milan | 38 | 52 | 84 |
| 3 | Napoli | 38 | 43 | 79 |
| 4 | Juventus | 38 | 20 | 70 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 74.3%. A draw had a probability of 15.8% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 9.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (9.68%) and 0-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.48%), while for a Spezia win it was 1-0 (3.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Spezia | Draw | Napoli |
9.85% ( -0.1) | 15.84% ( -0.04) | 74.3% ( 0.13) |
| Both teams to score 49.83% ( -0.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.19% ( -0.12) | 36.8% ( 0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.02% ( -0.13) | 58.97% ( 0.13) |
| Spezia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.43% ( -0.27) | 45.57% ( 0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 18.62% ( -0.21) | 81.38% ( 0.21) |
| Napoli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.55% ( 0) | 8.44% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 70.68% ( 0) | 29.32% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Spezia | Draw | Napoli |
| 1-0 @ 3.03% ( -0) 2-1 @ 2.94% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 1.19% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 0.95% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.75% Total : 9.85% | 1-1 @ 7.48% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 3.85% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 3.63% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.89% Total : 15.84% | 0-2 @ 11.75% ( 0.07) 0-3 @ 9.68% ( 0.06)0-1 @ 9.51% ( 0.05)1-2 @ 9.24% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 7.61% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 5.98% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 4.7% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.99% ( -0.03)0-5 @ 2.96% ( 0.02)1-5 @ 2.33% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.85% ( -0.02)0-6 @ 1.22% ( 0.01)1-6 @ 0.96% ( -0)2-5 @ 0.91% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.61% Total : 74.3% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Napoli | 21 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 51 | 15 | 36 | 56 |
| 2 | Inter Milan | 21 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 41 | 26 | 15 | 43 |
| 3 | Roma | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 18 | 10 | 40 |
| 4 | Lazio | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 36 | 16 | 20 | 38 |
| 5 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 39 | 24 | 15 | 38 |
| 6 | AC Milan | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 38 |
| 7 | Torino | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 30 |
| 8 | Udinese | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 29 |
| 9 | Bologna | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 29 |
| 10 | Empoli | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 26 |
| 11 | Monza | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 25 |
| 12 | Fiorentina | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 24 |
| 13 | Juventus | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 17 | 13 | 23 |
| 14 | Lecce | 21 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 23 |
| 15 | SassuoloSassuolo | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 23 |
| 16 | Salernitana | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 21 |
| 17 | SpeziaSpezia | 21 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 35 | -18 | 18 |
| 18 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 20 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 18 | 32 | -14 | 13 |
| 19 | Sampdoria | 20 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 34 | -26 | 9 |
| 20 | Cremonese | 21 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 37 | -22 | 8 |
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