SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 16 | Spezia | 38 | -30 | 36 |
| 17 | Salernitana | 38 | -45 | 31 |
| 18 | Cagliari | 38 | -34 | 30 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 17 | Salernitana | 38 | -45 | 31 |
| 18 | Cagliari | 38 | -34 | 30 |
| 19 | Genoa | 38 | -33 | 28 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Salernitana win with a probability of 44.97%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 28.88% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Salernitana win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (8.14%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 0-1 (8.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Salernitana | Draw | Cagliari |
44.97% ( 3.75) | 26.15% ( 0.3) | 28.88% ( -4.04) |
| Both teams to score 51.34% ( -2.78) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.19% ( -2.76) | 52.81% ( 2.76) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.57% ( -2.4) | 74.43% ( 2.41) |
| Salernitana Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.6% ( 0.63) | 23.4% ( -0.63) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 42.61% ( 0.91) | 57.39% ( -0.9) |
| Cagliari Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.02% ( -4.21) | 32.98% ( 4.22) |
