There is little to choose between two of the teams to have kept the most clean sheets in 2022 - nine for Milan and six for Lazio (who are joint-second in that regard) - so goals could be at a premium.
The Rossoneri are under more intense pressure than their Roman rivals and may crack at some point, which would have serious consequences for their dreams of the Scudetto.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 37.04%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 36.97% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.24%) and 0-2 (6.18%). The likeliest Lazio win was 1-0 (9.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
