Empoli have conceded 11 times in the opening 15 minutes of play in Serie A this season - the joint-most of any team (level with rock-bottom Salernitana) - while no side has scored more in this period than Verona's 11.
Therefore, the opening stages could prove crucial to the overall outcome, and if the hosts survive unscathed, their winless run can come to an end against a depleted visiting side.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hellas Verona win with a probability of 40.41%. A win for Empoli had a probability of 35.65% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hellas Verona win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.38%) and 0-2 (5.86%). The likeliest Empoli win was 2-1 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.
