While Napoli can boast one of the best away records in Europe this season - conceding only 11 goals in 15 outings - they are once again diminished by injury and suspension, so may be forced to settle for a draw.
Atalanta's travails in the final third show no signs of resolution, and they would probably take a point from this encounter if offered.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 38.8%. A win for Napoli had a probability of 35.59% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.51%) and 2-0 (6.38%). The likeliest Napoli win was 0-1 (8.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.
