In what is sure to be an intensely-contested affair, a low-scoring draw could be the outcome, with both sides still diminished by injuries up front.
Milan have won six from eight on home soil in Serie A this term, but Napoli have held the edge over them during recent years, and can use their counter-attacking pace and interplay to snatch a point.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 41.38%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 33.74% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.68%) and 0-2 (6.57%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 2-1 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.
