Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 49.16%. A win for Krylia Sovetov had a probability of 26.84% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.49%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Krylia Sovetov win was 1-2 (6.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
