Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 37.07%. A win for Rostov had a probability of 36.44% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.18%) and 0-2 (6.37%). The likeliest Rostov win was 1-0 (9.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Sochi in this match.
